By: Ashley
Have you ever wondered how fast you could get out of your neighborhood in an emergency? For my recent science fair project, I evaluated wildfire evacuation risk in the Oakland Hills and looked at different risk categories such as vegetation, slope, road type, distance to evacuation roads, and fire hazard severity risk.
My project started with collecting data from open source websites. Then, I inputted it into a Geographic Information System (GIS) software and separated my study area map into grids. I made a risk table and scored categories from 1-5 points, where 1 is the easiest to evacuate during an emergency and 5 is the hardest. Once I entered the data, I calculated the total risk score for each grid.
My results showed that in my study area there are 23 High Risk grids, 48 Medium Risk grids, and 12 Low Risk grids. I observed that there are Medium Risk grids around Highway 24 because there is more vegetation than around Highway 13. The High Risk grids occurred where there are narrow roads, high slope percentage and farther distance to evacuation roads. Interestingly, my analysis showed that there is also High Risk where a previous fire occurred (the 1991 Oakland Tunnel Fire). People assume that there is a higher risk at the top of the mountain, but since there is a secondary road, the risk is actually medium.
My conclusion is that wildfire evacuation risk is the highest when there is dense vegetation, steep terrain, limited evacuation access, and high fire hazard. The model I created can be used in other communities, so people can be better prepared in emergencies.
My project was the recipient of the NASA Earth System Science Project Award and received 3rd place in the Alameda County Science and Engineering Fair.